Coincidences have a way of capturing our attention and sparking intrigue. Whether it’s a miraculous escape, a timely phone call, or a bizarre series of events, these occurrences often leave us wondering if a hidden force is at play. In this article, we explore the concept of coincidences and delve into the rational approach to understanding these seemingly improbable events. By examining the probabilities and patterns behind these occurrences, we can unravel the mystery and realize that coincidences, while rare, are not as extraordinary as they may seem.
The Church Explosion in Beatrice
On the evening of March 1, 1950, Beatrice, Nebraska, was set for an ordinary choir rehearsal at 7:15 p.m. The fifteen choir members were expected to gather, but a series of improbable delays meant none arrived on time. The minister’s family faced a domestic delay: the minister’s wife was still ironing their daughter’s dress, which inadvertently caused them to run late. Meanwhile, a couple found themselves stuck at home as their car refused to start, leaving them stranded and unable to make the rehearsal. The pianist, who had intended to arrive 30 minutes early to prepare, fell into a deep sleep after dinner and remained oblivious to the time.
At 7:25 p.m., the church erupted in a catastrophic explosion as the choir members were still en route. The force of the blast was so powerful that it was heard throughout the village, and the explosion shattered the church’s walls and collapsed the roof. The scene was one of utter devastation, a stark contrast to the routine nature of the evening’s planned activities. Remarkably, despite the scale of the explosion, there were no fatalities, and the survivors were left in shock at their narrow escape.
The investigation by the fire chief revealed that the explosion resulted from a gas leak, a common yet dangerous issue that had been the cause of the church’s destruction. However, to the choir members who had narrowly avoided being inside the building, the timing of their delayed arrival seemed almost providential. They believed they had been spared by a divine intervention or a sign from God, rather than mere chance. The dramatic and miraculous nature of their escape from what could have been a deadly disaster prompted them to question whether this was a case of divine will or an astonishing coincidence.
The Telepathic Phone Call
In another example of seemingly extraordinary coincidence, consider a recent personal experience: last week, you were reminiscing about an old school friend named Andy. You had not been in touch for some time, and as you thought about him, the phone rang. To your surprise, it was Andy calling. Your immediate reaction might have been to attribute this to telepathy, believing that your thoughts had somehow reached him across the distance.
However, before jumping to conclusions about telepathic connections, it is worth examining the probability of such coincidences rationally. Consider the countless occasions when you might think of someone but they do not contact you, and conversely, the times when someone contacts you without you having thought of them. The interaction between thoughts and communications is random and numerous, making such coincidences more likely than one might assume.
Given that people often think about their friends and acquaintances, the chance that a friend you are thinking of will also reach out to you at that moment is not as improbable as it appears. If you have multiple friends, the probability of such coincidental phone calls increases, making the experience of Andy calling you less extraordinary in the context of statistical likelihood.
Intel’s Confidential Package
On October 5, 1990, the San Francisco Examiner reported a peculiar incident involving two major technology companies, Intel and AMD. Intel was preparing to sue AMD over its new computer chip, the AM386, which Intel claimed was a direct reference to its own 386 chip. How Intel obtained crucial information about AMD’s chip is a remarkable coincidence story.
Both companies had inadvertently hired employees named Mike Webb. These two individuals, staying in the same California hotel, checked out on the same day. After their departure, the hotel received a confidential package for Mike Webb. In an administrative blunder, the package was mistakenly sent to the Mike Webb employed by Intel. Upon receiving the package, Intel’s employee forwarded it to the legal department, revealing confidential details about AMD’s chip.
This incident underscores the extraordinary nature of such coincidences. The alignment of names, timing, and the mistaken delivery of a critical document highlights how chance can lead to significant consequences. The improbability of this series of events occurring, from the hiring of two individuals with the same name to the delivery mix-up, illustrates how remarkable coincidences can have profound implications.
The Concept of Synchronicity
Swiss psychiatrist Carl Jung introduced the concept of “synchronicity” to explain events that appear to be meaningfully connected despite lacking a direct causal relationship. Synchronicity describes the phenomenon where coincidental events seem to be connected in a meaningful way, suggesting an underlying order or pattern that transcends ordinary causality.
Jung’s idea of synchronicity provides an intriguing lens through which to view seemingly improbable events. Synchronicity challenges conventional views of randomness and chance by suggesting that these events reflect a deeper, non-causal connection. However, for those who approach such events rationally, analyzing them through probability and statistical likelihood is more practical.
For instance, applying a systematic approach to the Beatrice church explosion involves evaluating the probabilities of various scenarios: the choir being delayed, the church exploding, and the various combinations of these events. By analyzing the frequency of such rare occurrences and understanding that improbable events can and do happen, one can gain a more grounded perspective on what might otherwise seem like extraordinary coincidences.
Applying Rational Analysis to Personal Experiences
It is helpful to apply rational analysis to understand personal coincidences, such as receiving a call from Andy while thinking of him. Consider the numerous scenarios where communication could or could not occur: times when you think of someone, but they do not call; times when they think of you, but you do not contact them; and numerous other combinations of thoughts and actions.
People often think about others and communicate regularly, so the probability of a coincidental phone call increases. When considering the vast number of possible interactions and missed connections, the chance of someone you are thinking of contacting you becomes more comprehensible. This statistical approach helps demystify the occurrence, revealing it to be less extraordinary and more a natural outcome of the interplay between thoughts and communication.
The Misconception of ‘Never’
The term “never” often implies an improbability so extreme that it seems impossible. This perception can lead to a misunderstanding of the likelihood of rare events. In probabilistic terms, even events considered “never” can occur, as the notion of “never” does not equate to zero probability.
Recognizing this misconception helps recalibrate our understanding of chance and coincidence. Events that appear improbable or extraordinary are, in fact, part of the realm of possibility. By adjusting our perspective and acknowledging that rare events are not as unlikely as they seem, we can better appreciate the nature of coincidences and their occurrence. Thus, while improbable events might seem remarkable, they are simply rare outcomes within the scope of probability.
Conclusion: The Inevitability of Unlikely Events
In conclusion, while captivating and intriguing, coincidences are not as extraordinary as they initially appear. Improbable events are bound to happen given the vast number of possibilities and interactions occurring every day. By examining the probabilities and patterns behind these occurrences, we can dispel the notion of supernatural intervention or telepathy. Coincidences are rare but statistically plausible events that remind us of the interconnectedness of our world. So, the next time you experience an uncanny coincidence, remember that its emergence is not as surprising as the absence of such events would be.
This article is a part of The Cognitive Bias Series based on The Art of Thinking Clearly by Rolf Dobelli.