When pondering the future, we often envision a world filled with fantastical advancements and revolutionary technologies. However, history has shown that our predictions often miss the mark. Despite our imaginations running wild with ideas of flying cars and moon colonies, the reality is that many aspects of our daily lives remain remarkably unchanged. In this article, we delve into the concept of neomania—the obsession with all things shiny and new—and explore why traditional technology often outlasts fleeting innovations in the ever-evolving landscape of progress.
The Persistence of Ancient Inventions
Look around you. The objects that surround you, from chairs to shoes to utensils, are rooted in ancient history. Chairs, inspired by ancient Egypt, provide us with a place to sit and rest. Pants, dating back thousands of years, have become a staple in our wardrobes. Even the concept of leather shoes can be traced back to the last ice age. Our reliance on these age-old inventions reveals that despite the rapid pace of technological advancement, many things remain fundamentally unchanged.
The Antifragile Nature of Established Technology
Drawing inspiration from Nassim Taleb’s book, Antifragile, we can gain valuable insights into the longevity of technology. Taleb suggests that most technology that has been around for the past fifty years will likely continue to serve us well in the next fifty years. It is the tried and tested inventions, the ones that have withstood the test of time, that possess an inherent logic and resilience. In many ways, these technologies have proven their worth, and their continued existence attests to their enduring value. While new gadgets and flashy contraptions may capture our attention momentarily, their lifespan is often short-lived.
The Pitfall of Neomania
In our pursuit of the future, we tend to prioritize the latest and trendiest inventions while overlooking the significance of traditional technology. The neomania pitfall refers to our obsession with novelty, valuing the newness of an invention over its tangible benefits. We become enamored with the idea of being early adopters, always seeking the next big thing without considering the lasting impact. However, this focus on temporary trends can blind us to the enduring power of established technology.
Avoiding Over-Optimistic Forecasts
Predicting the future is a tricky endeavor, as demonstrated by Stanley Kubrick’s iconic film, “2001: A Space Odyssey.” Made in 1968, the movie imagined a future where humans would have a thriving moon colony and regular commercial flights to and from the moon. Such ambitious forecasts fell far from reality. To avoid falling into the trap of over-optimistic predictions, we can adopt a simple rule of thumb: if something has survived for a certain number of years, it is likely to endure for another similar period. Taleb emphasizes that the “bullshit filter of history” separates gimmicks from true game-changers, and it is wise to trust in the resilience of time-tested technology.
Embracing a Balanced Perspective
While the future undoubtedly holds exciting innovations, we must approach them with a balanced perspective. Rather than succumbing to neomania and constantly chasing the next big thing, we should recognize the value of traditional technology and appreciate its time-tested reliability. By embracing a combination of established inventions and carefully selected advancements, we can navigate the ever-changing landscape of progress without losing sight of what truly stands the test of time.
Conclusion
Neomania, our obsession with all things shiny and new, often leads us astray when predicting the future. While the allure of technological breakthroughs is undeniable, it is crucial to acknowledge the enduring power of established technology. By recognizing the antifragile nature of inventions that have withstood the test of time, we can develop a more balanced perspective on progress. So, let us appreciate the wisdom of ancient inventions while remaining open to the possibilities of the future, striking a harmonious balance between tradition and innovation.