Imagine receiving a phone call one day informing you that you’ve won the lottery—$10 million! How would you feel? Elated? Ecstatic? On top of the world? But how long would that joy last? Now, consider another scenario: a call informing you of the sudden passing of your best friend. The sorrow, the grief—how long would that sadness endure? The curious thing about these emotions is how intensely we feel them in the moment but how quickly they fade. A phenomenon known as the hedonic treadmill explains this cycle of fleeting happiness and recurring dissatisfaction, an invisible force that drives much of our emotional lives.
Affective Forecasting: Our Inability to Predict Emotions
Affective forecasting is the psychological concept that describes our attempts to predict how future events will make us feel. On the surface, this might sound like a reasonable exercise—after all, how could we make decisions without some sense of how we’ll emotionally respond to them? However, the problem lies in our consistent inaccuracy when predicting our emotional reactions to positive and negative life events.
Take the case of winning the lottery. Many of us fantasize about the joy we would feel with such a windfall. We imagine a life of financial freedom, new possessions, vacations, and the ability to help loved ones. However, research has shown that lottery winners, while initially ecstatic, experience only a temporary boost in happiness. Within months, their happiness returns to baseline, and they are no happier than they were before the win. The same pattern holds true for other significant positive events. A new home, the latest luxury car, or a career promotion all bring temporary joy but don’t result in lasting increases in happiness. The elation we expect from these events quickly replaces a return to normalcy.
This phenomenon is not limited to positive events. When we anticipate negative life events—such as the death of a loved one, a serious injury, or the end of a relationship—we tend to overestimate the duration and intensity of our grief. For example, after the breakup of a long-term relationship, many people believe they will never recover emotionally. Yet, people tend to bounce back much faster than they expect, often within a few months, as they gradually adapt to their new circumstances. This emotional adaptability makes us resilient, though we often fail to recognize it in the moment.
Affective forecasting helps explain why we frequently make decisions based on inaccurate emotional projections. We chase after things that we believe will make us happy, only to find that the satisfaction is short-lived. Our inability to correctly predict how we will feel in the future is a central factor in the cycle of the hedonic treadmill, where the pursuit of happiness based on external events seems like a never-ending race.
The Illusion of Material Happiness
Popular culture has long associated material possessions with happiness. From the promise of luxury cars to expansive homes, we’re often told that these tangible goods are markers of success and sources of lasting joy. However, research shows that the happiness derived from material possessions is fleeting at best.
The phenomenon of the hedonic treadmill explains this cycle: when we acquire something new, whether it’s a shiny new car, a fancy watch, or a designer outfit, we experience an initial spike in happiness. But soon, the excitement fades as we become accustomed to the new item. What was once novel becomes part of our everyday environment, and our emotional response to it diminishes over time. We quickly adapt, and the item no longer feels as special or exciting as it did when it was new.
For example, consider the story of a man who, after coming into significant wealth, decided to build his dream home—a sprawling villa with ten rooms, a swimming pool, and panoramic views of a lake. At first, the house was a source of immense joy, providing a sense of accomplishment and fulfillment. However, after a few months, that joy began to fade, and he felt indifferent about the villa, much like he had about his previous modest apartment. This perfectly illustrates how we adapt to material possessions over time. The same applies to career advancements and financial gains. What once seemed like the key to happiness eventually becomes just another part of our daily life, no longer providing the same emotional lift.
What’s more, the pursuit of material wealth often leads to a cycle of wanting more. After acquiring one item, we crave the next upgrade—a new house, a better car, or a higher salary. This insatiable desire for more fuels the treadmill, leaving us constantly striving for the next big thing but never feeling fully satisfied. The joy we expect from these acquisitions is inherently short-lived, and the longer we chase after them, the more we find ourselves running in place.
The Hedonic Treadmill: Constant Pursuit, Constant Discontent
The core concept behind the hedonic treadmill is that external factors, such as material possessions, career success, and social status often dictate our happiness. The treadmill effect explains why, despite our best efforts to improve our circumstances, we rarely experience lasting increases in happiness. Instead, no matter how much we achieve, our happiness levels tend to return to their baseline.
This cycle is fueled by adaptation—a psychological process that allows us to adjust to new circumstances, both positive and negative. While adaptation is an essential mechanism for emotional resilience, it also means that we can quickly become accustomed to new achievements and possessions, diminishing their emotional impact. For instance, many individuals may initially feel excited and proud after getting a promotion. However, after a few months, the thrill of success fades, and they return to their usual emotional state. The same is true for acquiring material goods, such as a new car or home. The happiness that initially accompanies these purchases wanes as we grow used to them.
The hedonic treadmill effect is particularly prevalent in pursuing wealth and status. People work hard to achieve financial success or climb the corporate ladder, believing these achievements will bring lasting contentment. However, after reaching these milestones, they often find that their expected satisfaction doesn’t materialize. For many, the initial excitement is followed by the realization that what they truly crave is something beyond material possessions or external validation. They continue to work harder and acquire more, yet the sense of fulfillment they anticipate remains elusive.
Ultimately, the hedonic treadmill reflects the paradox of success: the more we strive for external markers of happiness, the more we are left wanting. This leads to a continuous cycle of desire and dissatisfaction, making finding lasting joy in external achievements difficult. The treadmill keeps turning, and no matter how fast we run, we remain in the same emotional place.
Misjudging Negative Events: We Overestimate the Pain
Just as we misjudge the positive impact of future events, we also tend to overestimate the emotional consequences of adverse events. When faced with hardship or loss, we believe the emotional pain we will experience will be far worse and more enduring than it actually is. Yet, time and again, studies show that people are far more resilient than they give themselves credit for.
When a relationship ends, for example, it can feel like the end of the world. The grief can be overwhelming, and it seems impossible to imagine ever being happy again. But in reality, most people find that the pain begins to subside after a few months. They heal, start new relationships, and find happiness once more. This phenomenon reflects emotional adaptation, the process that causes our happiness from positive events to fade over time. While negative events may initially throw us into a state of despair, our emotional resilience allows us to bounce back more quickly than we anticipate.
The same holds true for other major life events, such as the death of a loved one or a personal injury. While these events can be incredibly painful in the short term, our emotional response to them diminishes over time. People who lose a spouse or experience a serious illness often report that, although the pain is intense at first, they gradually adjust to their new reality and find ways to move forward. This ability to adapt to negative circumstances is a testament to the human capacity for resilience.
The tendency to overestimate the duration and intensity of negative emotions is known as the durability bias. It’s a cognitive distortion that leads us to believe that we will be stuck in pain or grief forever when, in fact, we are often far more capable of recovering than we realize. This bias is a key part of the hedonic treadmill, as it skews our predictions of how long happiness or sadness will last, making us more likely to chase after temporary solutions.
Making Better Decisions: Strategies for Long-Term Happiness
Understanding the hedonic treadmill and the limitations of material possessions and life events in generating lasting happiness allows us to make more informed decisions about what will truly bring us joy. Here are some strategies that can help us break free from the treadmill and cultivate long-term happiness:
- Avoid Negative Things You Cannot Adapt To: There are certain sources of dissatisfaction that we are unlikely to adapt to, no matter how much time passes. Daily commutes, long hours of work, chronic stress, and constant noise are examples of situations that tend to have a lasting negative impact on our well-being. These factors don’t improve over time, and they don’t provide any long-term benefits. If possible, avoid these sources of unhappiness to prevent them from draining your emotional energy.
- Expect Short-Term Happiness from Material Things: While it’s natural to derive some pleasure from material acquisitions, it’s important to recognize that the happiness they bring is short-lived. Whether it’s a new car, a house, or a high-paying job, these things will not provide lasting satisfaction. Acknowledge that material goods are a means to an end, not the end itself. Rather than focusing solely on what you can acquire, invest in experiences and relationships that offer more enduring happiness.
- Prioritize Free Time and Autonomy: Research shows that the happiest people are those who have control over their time. Whether working less, spending time with family and friends, or pursuing personal hobbies, the freedom to decide how you spend your time leads to greater happiness than any material achievement. Seek opportunities for autonomy in your life, whether it’s in your career or personal endeavors. More free time allows you to do what truly brings you joy.
- Invest in Relationships and Meaningful Work: Long-lasting happiness often comes from the relationships we build and the meaningful work we engage in. Investing time in friendships, family, and professional projects that align with your values can provide a deep sense of fulfillment. These relationships and experiences create a sense of connection and purpose that material possessions simply cannot replicate.
- Follow Your Passions, Even at a Cost: Many people find that pursuing their passions, even at the expense of a larger income or higher social status, leads to greater happiness in the long run. Whether starting a creative project, traveling, or dedicating time to a cause, doing what you love provides a sense of purpose and satisfaction. These pursuits can offer far more lasting joy than any material acquisition, and they often allow you to grow personally and professionally in ways that money cannot buy.
By adopting these strategies, you can break free from the cycle of the hedonic treadmill and build a more fulfilling and enduring life. Happiness is not found in external achievements or possessions but in the choices we make, the relationships we nurture, and the passions we pursue.
Conclusion: Escaping the Treadmill
The hedonic treadmill is a powerful but often misunderstood force in our lives. It pulls us into a cycle where happiness seems just out of reach, no matter how much we achieve. Understanding that material goods, promotions, and wealth will not guarantee long-lasting happiness is the first step toward breaking free from this cycle. True happiness, it turns out, is more likely to come from the things we do, the relationships we nurture, and the sense of meaning we create in our lives. Focusing on these enduring sources of joy allows us to finally step off the treadmill and embrace a deeper, more sustainable form of contentment.
This article is part of The Art of Thinking Clearly Series based on Rolf Dobelli’s book.