In Jorge Luis Borges’ thought-provoking short story, ‘Del rigor en la ciencia,’ he introduces a fictional country where cartography has reached a perplexing extreme. The citizens of this country are obsessed with mapping every detail, resulting in a map that is as large as the country itself, with a scale of 1:1. However, they soon realize that such excessive information provides no valuable insight since it merely duplicates what they already know. This extreme case exemplifies the information bias, the fallacy that more information automatically leads to better decision-making. In this article, we explore the illusory nature of information bias and how it can mislead us in various contexts.
The Quest for the Ideal Hotel
Let’s consider a relatable scenario of searching for a hotel in Miami. Initially, you come across a compelling offer that catches your attention. However, driven by the desire to secure the best deal, you continue researching. Hours pass as you delve into numerous customer reviews, blog posts, and visual content. Surprisingly, after all the extensive research, you realize that the initial hotel you liked was indeed the best choice. The overwhelming amount of additional information didn’t contribute to making a better decision. In fact, it only consumed valuable time and energy, leaving you wondering if the pursuit of more information was worth it.
The Case of Diagnostic Tests
Even medical professionals, such as physicians, are not immune to the allure of surplus information. Jonathan Baron of the University of Pennsylvania conducted a study involving doctors faced with a diagnostic dilemma. A patient presents symptoms indicating an 80% probability of suffering from disease A. If not disease A, then the patient may have either disease X or Y, both with similar consequences and treatments. Logically, one would choose the treatment for disease A. However, when presented with a diagnostic test that may identify disease X, doctors are inclined to recommend conducting the test, even though the results would be irrelevant. The additional information fails to add value to the decision-making process, as the initial probability of disease A remains higher than that of disease X.
The Perils of Excessive Information
Not only doctors but also managers and investors often fall prey to the allure of surplus information. Countless studies are commissioned and extensive research is conducted, even when critical facts are readily available. The pursuit of more information not only wastes time and money but can also put individuals at a disadvantage. As an example, consider the question of which city has more inhabitants: San Diego or San Antonio. Gerd Gigerenzer’s study revealed that German students, who were familiar with San Diego but not necessarily with San Antonio, correctly guessed the more familiar city. However, the majority of Chicago students, who were familiar with both cities, fell victim to their surplus knowledge, leading them astray.
The Financial Crisis Wake-Up Call
The financial industry, with its abundance of economists, analysts, and forecasters, is a prime example of how excessive information can be misleading. From 2005 to 2007, countless white papers, research reports, mathematical models, and expert opinions flooded the market. The mountains of data and analyses seemed impressive, only to crumble when the financial crisis struck, leaving them worthless in the face of global market upheaval. The realization dawned that focusing on the essential facts and avoiding the trap of excessive information could have yielded better insights and decision-making.
Embracing the Power of Simplicity
Instead of fixating on amassing endless data, the key lies in extracting the most crucial facts and insights. Overwhelming ourselves with superfluous knowledge is, in fact, worthless, whether we acknowledge it or not. As Daniel J. Boorstin aptly put it, “The greatest obstacle to discovery is not ignorance – it is the illusion of knowledge.” Rather than drowning in a sea of information, we must strive to distill the relevant and essential elements that guide us toward better decisions.
Conclusion
The information bias, fueled by the delusion that more information guarantees better decisions, is a trap that can lead us astray. Borges’ fictional map with a scale of 1:1 reflects the extreme manifestation of this bias. Whether in the quest for a hotel, the medical field, or the financial industry, excessive information often proves to be futile and time-consuming. It is crucial to recognize the value of simplicity and the significance of focusing on the essential facts rather than succumbing to the allure of surplus knowledge. By doing so, we can navigate the sea of data more effectively, making informed decisions and avoiding the illusion of knowledge.