When faced with important decisions, we often fall prey to what psychologists refer to as “alternative blindness.” This phenomenon occurs when we fail to consider the available alternatives beyond the presented options. In this article, we explore the concept of alternative blindness, uncovering its fallacies and highlighting the importance of expanding our perspective to make more informed decisions.
Fallacies in the MBA Brochure
Imagine flipping through a brochure promoting the benefits of an MBA degree. The brochure paints an enticing picture, showcasing a prestigious campus, modern sports facilities, and diverse students. It claims that graduates can expect to earn an additional $400,000 before retirement, making the $100,000 program fee seem like a no-brainer. However, this argument conceals four fallacies that deserve careful consideration.
The Swimmer’s Body Illusion
The first fallacy lies in the assumption that individuals pursuing an MBA would already earn above-average salaries in their careers, even without the additional qualification. By attracting career-oriented individuals, MBA programs naturally attract those likely to achieve financial success. Therefore, attributing all future earnings solely to the MBA overlooks this crucial factor.
The True Cost of an MBA
The second fallacy emerges when we account for the two-year duration of an MBA program. During this time, individuals experience a loss of potential earnings, which can amount to $100,000 or more. Consequently, the total cost of an MBA should be recalibrated to $200,000 instead of the initial $100,000, considering the foregone income.
Unreliable Long-Term Earnings Predictions
Attempting to estimate earnings over thirty years in the future, as the brochure suggests, proves futile. The ever-changing economic landscape and unpredictable career trajectories make it impractical to accurately project such distant financial outcomes. Relying on these distant projections introduces unnecessary uncertainty into the decision-making process.
Neglecting Other Alternatives
Lastly, the brochure presents the MBA as a binary choice—either pursue the degree or do not pursue it. However, this false dichotomy blinds us to the existence of other viable options. It fails to consider the possibility of exploring alternative programs that offer similar career advancement opportunities at a significantly lower cost. Overlooking these alternatives can hinder our ability to make the most beneficial decision.
Expanding the Perspective
Alternative blindness extends beyond brochures and infiltrates various aspects of decision making. In the world of finance, for example, considering only two investment options—such as a savings account and a bond—limits our ability to make optimal choices. To truly evaluate our options, we must compare the bond with all other potential investments available to us, ensuring we select the best option based on comprehensive analysis.
The Wisdom of Warren Buffett
Renowned investor Warren Buffett offers a valuable approach to decision making that transcends alternative blindness. Buffett advises measuring every deal against the second-best available option at any given time, even if it means continuing with current investments. By considering a broader range of alternatives, we increase the chances of making informed and advantageous decisions.
Politicians and Alternative Blindness
Alternative blindness is not limited to individual decision making—it also plagues the realm of politics. For instance, when evaluating the construction of a sports arena on a vacant plot of land, proponents often highlight the emotional and financial benefits it would bring. However, this perspective overlooks the comparison with other potential projects, such as schools, performing arts centers, hospitals, or even selling the land to address debt or invest in other areas. By failing to weigh the consequences of alternative choices, politicians risk making suboptimal decisions.
Personal Decision Making and Overlooking Alternatives
Alternative blindness can even impact life-or-death decisions. Consider a scenario where a doctor presents two choices: certain death within five years or a risky surgery with a 50% survival rate. It may appear as a difficult dichotomy, but alternative blindness obscures the possibility of seeking a less invasive surgery at a different hospital, which could provide a longer life expectancy and potentially benefit from advancements in medical technology.
Expanding Your Choices
To combat alternative blindness, we must remind ourselves that decisions often extend beyond the presented options. By challenging ourselves to think beyond the immediate choices, we open ourselves to a wider range of superior alternatives. Avoiding the false dilemma of a rock and a hard place allows us to explore creative solutions and discover hidden opportunities.
Conclusion
Alternative blindness limits our decision-making capabilities by confining our choices to the presented options, while neglecting the superior alternatives that may exist. By acknowledging the fallacies in arguments and broadening our perspective, we can make more informed decisions. Whether in educational pursuits, financial investments, political considerations, or personal health choices, expanding our horizons enables us to navigate the complexities of decision making with greater clarity and confidence.