Coincidences have a way of capturing our attention and sparking intrigue. Whether it’s a miraculous escape, a timely phone call, or a bizarre series of events, these occurrences often leave us wondering if a hidden force is at play. In this article, we explore the concept of coincidences and delve into the rational approach to understanding these seemingly improbable events. By examining the probabilities and patterns behind these occurrences, we can unravel the mystery and realize that coincidences, while rare, are not as extraordinary as they may seem.
The Nature of Coincidence: A Glimpse into the Unlikely
Coincidences occur frequently, yet we often fail to recognize them for what they truly are—unpredictable outcomes of an intricate web of variables. These occurrences appear random and startling, yet they leave us questioning the nature of chance. Why do they seem so special when, in fact, they are simply rare results of a series of interconnected events?
Take, for instance, the scenario of receiving a phone call from a long-lost friend precisely when you were thinking about them. At first glance, it feels like a message from the universe, a sign that it is aligning profoundly. These moments can evoke feelings of awe, especially during significant or emotional times in our lives. We attach meaning to them, thinking they are more than just a random accident, as if some higher power or unseen force is orchestrating the timing for us. But when we examine the situation logically, these coincidences lose their mystique.
We forget that each of us spends a large portion of our day thinking about others. Whether we are contemplating old friendships, reminiscing about past experiences, or wondering how a colleague is faring at work, our minds are often preoccupied with the lives of others. Given that the world is brimming with interconnected relationships and communication channels, it becomes much more probable that, at some point, two individuals will be thinking of each other at the same time. This phenomenon, though miraculous, is simply a result of the interconnectedness of human thought, compounded by the likelihood that one person will make contact at precisely the right moment.
Moreover, our tendency to focus on coincidences rather than on the millions of other events that occur without such synchrony leads us to overestimate the rarity of these occurrences. We may overlook the times when a person thinks of us but does not call or when we think of someone and they do not reach out. It’s easy to disregard the countless times our thoughts and actions do not align in such a manner. This cognitive bias heightens our perception of coincidences when they do happen, making them seem extraordinary when, in fact, they are quite ordinary.
The Hand of God or Probability?
Carl Jung’s concept of synchronicity was designed to explain these types of experiences that defy logical explanation. According to Jung, synchronicity is the occurrence of events that seem meaningfully related but have no causal connection. For Jung, such moments were not mere coincidences; they represented a deeper, hidden connection between the individual and the universe. They were seen as manifestations of the unconscious mind or perhaps even signs from a higher power or unknown force at play.
Jung believed synchronicity could reveal insights into the human psyche, providing answers or guidance at critical moments. In this view, coincidences bridge the physical and spiritual worlds, connecting individuals with something greater than themselves. This framework suggests that when these seemingly improbable occurrences happen, they carry meaning and purpose beyond their statistical likelihood.
However, Jung’s theory can seem overly mystical and speculative to the rational thinker. The question then becomes: How do we reconcile these experiences with a more grounded, logical understanding of the world? The answer lies in applying the principles of probability and chance to such occurrences. Rather than attributing meaning to these events, we can examine them as statistical anomalies—highly unlikely but still entirely possible.
Using a logical approach, we can break down events like the church explosion in Beatrice, Nebraska, into manageable, quantifiable probabilities. The church explosion seemed improbable because of the many factors that had to align for it to happen, but each factor is not as rare as it first appears. If we consider all the other instances of choirs meeting in churches worldwide, with rehearsals going off without incident, we begin to realize that the likelihood of something like this happening, while rare, is not as low as we might have initially thought. The event was a product of a chain of random occurrences—a gas leak, delayed choir members, and the timing of the explosion—that could have easily occurred in other situations.
This exercise reveals that the convergence of common factors can often explain what we perceive as a miraculous event. The idea of a “hand of God” guiding the explosion suddenly seems far less plausible when we consider the much more likely scenario of the event being a confluence of unrelated factors, each contributing to the overall outcome.
The Probability of Coincidence
Coincidences often appear more mysterious than they are because our brains are wired to notice and remember the improbable, the rare, and the extraordinary. When something unlikely occurs—like receiving a phone call from a friend exactly when you were thinking about them—it stands out. It catches our attention because it is a deviation from the norm. But when we look at coincidences through the lens of probability, we see that they are less surprising and far more likely than we realize.
These events feel so extraordinary because we fail to account for the immense number of interactions, thoughts, and actions that occur every day. Humans constantly think about each other and interact with one another, whether through text messages, phone calls, emails, or social media. In a world where billions of people are engaged in various forms of communication, it becomes much more probable that two people will think about each other simultaneously, and one of them will reach out.
This probability is not limited to phone calls between friends. Think of all the daily connections—business deals made by chance meetings, the serendipitous discovery of a long-forgotten friend, the sudden realization of a common interest with a stranger. These moments are not mystical; they are the product of chance, of people intersecting in ways too numerous to track or predict. With so many people engaged in so many different ways of connecting, it is hardly surprising that coincidences occur with regularity.
In fact, when we consider the vast number of daily interactions—be it phone calls, emails, or simple encounters in a crowded city—it becomes clear that coincidences are far more likely than we often acknowledge. They are not outliers; they are a natural byproduct of human life’s interconnectedness.
The Fallacy of ‘Never’
When we say that something will “never” happen, we typically use the word to describe an event we believe to be highly unlikely. But this perception of impossibility is a cognitive error. In probability, “never” does not mean the event has no chance of occurring—it simply means that the likelihood is extremely low but still not zero. The problem lies in the way we perceive rarity. Our brains tend to overestimate the improbability of certain events, assigning them a level of impossibility that is not reflective of reality.
This fallacy is particularly evident in rare events, such as the likelihood of a long-lost friend calling exactly when you are thinking of them. We tend to assume that the more improbable an event is, the more impossible it becomes. But the reality is that even improbable events are still possible, and they will eventually happen when there are enough opportunities for them to occur. This is why we experience coincidences—they are rare but not impossible.
The word “never” is often used to dismiss something as inconceivable, but in reality, it represents an extreme end of the probability scale, not an absolute. In the same way that we acknowledge the probability of winning a lottery as very low, we do not say it is impossible; we accept that while it is unlikely, it is still within the realm of possibility. The same logic applies to coincidences. They are not miraculous or divine interventions; they are simply the inevitable outcome of rare probabilities intersecting in ways we often fail to grasp.
The Surprising Normalcy of the Extraordinary
The world is full of improbable events, but we only notice the ones that stand out to us. When a coincidence occurs, it feels rare and exceptional because it deviates from the routine of everyday life. Yet, when we take a step back and consider the vast number of daily interactions and events, we realize that coincidences are not as rare as they seem. The world is a complex network of interwoven relationships, and improbable events are bound to happen simply because the conditions for them exist everywhere.
The real surprise is not that these coincidences occur but that we are so often amazed by them. We fail to recognize the sheer randomness and chance governing our lives. In a world where billions of interactions happen every day, it would be more surprising if coincidences didn’t occur. The true nature of these events is that they are part of a larger, natural pattern of probability. The improbability of one specific event is less significant when you account for the many events that happen every second.
Next time a coincidence occurs, consider the many factors that made it possible instead of marveling at its rarity. Recognize that these occurrences are part of the fabric of life. They are not signs from a higher power or proof of some mystical force at work; they are simply the result of chance and probability, intertwined in ways we cannot always predict or understand. The extraordinary is not always as exceptional as it seems.
Conclusion: The Inevitability of Unlikely Events
In conclusion, while captivating and intriguing, coincidences are not as extraordinary as they initially appear. Improbable events are bound to happen, given the vast number of daily possibilities and interactions. By examining the probabilities and patterns behind these occurrences, we can dispel the notion of supernatural intervention or telepathy. Coincidences are rare but statistically plausible events that remind us of the interconnectedness of our world. So, the next time you experience an uncanny coincidence, remember that its emergence is not as surprising as the absence of such events would be.
This article is a part of The Cognitive Bias Series based on The Art of Thinking Clearly by Rolf Dobelli.