We often envision a world filled with fantastical advancements and revolutionary technologies when pondering the future. However, history has shown that our predictions often miss the mark. Despite our imaginations running wild with ideas of flying cars and moon colonies, many aspects of our daily lives remain remarkably unchanged. In this article, we delve into neomania—the obsession with all things shiny and new—and explore why traditional technology often outlasts fleeting innovations in the ever-evolving landscape of progress.
The Futuristic Fantasies of the Past
In the mid-20th century, the world was teeming with a sense of boundless possibility. The future, for many, was a shiny, gleaming world of advanced technologies that would revolutionize every aspect of human life. People envisioned vast, futuristic cities stretching to the sky, with glass buildings reflecting the sun in dazzling patterns. The idea of “sky highways” was not just an abstract thought but a believable prediction of how transportation would evolve. There were dreams of high-speed trains zipping through cityscapes in seconds and cars that flew rather than rolled along roads. People saw the future as a time when gravity would no longer hold us down, where cutting-edge innovations would streamline movement and living.
But the grandest dreams of the era ventured far beyond architecture and transportation. People imagined that technology would eventually take over every aspect of life. Individuals thought space travel would be as common as flying, with moon vacations and colonies on distant planets. Deep-sea cities would allow humans to live and work beneath the ocean’s surface, while our homes would be encased in plastic capsules, providing ultimate comfort and flexibility. Food, once a complex ritual of preparation and consumption, would be consumed entirely in pill form. Reproduction was imagined as something that could be chosen from a catalog of traits, bypassing the messy biological process of conception.
It seemed that the imagination of the future was endless at this time. The most outlandish predictions were made confidently, as if science and technology would continue to race ahead without limit. By the turn of the century, it seemed natural to think that we would be traveling to other planets, never aging, and living in cities that resembled something from a science fiction novel.
But looking at today’s world, we find that many of these predictions have not come to fruition or have manifested in ways much less radical than once thought. Instead of space colonies, we have begun exploring space tourism possibilities. Bullet trains still exist in some parts of the world, but they aren’t replacing the need for traditional modes of transportation. And while technology has indeed changed how we interact with the world, many of the changes envisioned—like living in flying cars or colonies on Mars—remain beyond our reach. This gap between what we imagined and what we have shows just how far our visions of the future can stray from reality.
The Surprising Resilience of Old Technology
In modern technological advancement, it’s easy to forget that many of the devices and tools we rely on today have been around for centuries, quietly evolving and adapting to our needs without the fanfare of cutting-edge gadgets. In his book Antifragile, Nassim Taleb offers an important perspective on this. He argues that, rather than focusing on the newest technological wonders, we should give more credit to the tools that have stood the test of time. These older technologies have survived and thrived through generations of change, adapting to new needs and circumstances without being overshadowed by novelty.
Take the chair, for example. A seemingly simple object, but it’s been with us for thousands of years. The basic design of the chair has not changed drastically since its creation by the ancient Egyptians. Whether in a wooden throne, a modern office chair, or a simple folding seat, the chair’s primary function—providing comfort and support—has remained unchanged. Likewise, the humble fork, a daily tool, traces its lineage to Roman times. The fork’s design has evolved, but the core function—helping us bring food to our mouths—has remained fundamentally the same.
The durability of these technologies is a testament not just to their design but also to their inherent value. These tools have endured because they serve a clear purpose and work effectively within our environment. There is a quiet wisdom in their simplicity: They are not flashy, but they have proven themselves indispensable. While we may be drawn to the latest smartphone or the next breakthrough in artificial intelligence, we often overlook these humble, timeless objects that continue to serve us well.
Taleb argues that these enduring technologies are like evolutionary survivors. Just as certain species have thrived and adapted to changing environments, these inventions have withstood centuries of technological change and remain relevant. This is a key insight when we consider the future: the technologies that will continue to shape our lives in fifty years may not be the latest gadgets but the tried-and-true tools that have been with us for generations.
Embracing the Old, Ignoring the New
One of the most striking patterns in how we view technology is our obsession with the new. There is an inherent human desire to chase after the latest and greatest, often at the expense of appreciating what already works. This phenomenon, known as neomania, drives much of our technological culture today. People today are obsessed with upgrading to the latest iPhone, the newest smartwatch, or the most innovative home gadget. But in this race to own the newest tech, we sometimes overlook the tools and technologies that have been used for decades or even centuries and still offer immense value.
In the 1960s, the space race peaked, and people dreamed of humanity’s future in space. The idea of space tourism, of living on the moon, and of interplanetary travel became the symbol of progress. People thought that by the turn of the century, space would be as accessible as air travel, and traveling to Mars seemed entirely plausible. However, as time has shown, the space race was far more complicated than anyone anticipated. While we have made strides in space exploration, living on the moon or Mars is still far from our reality.
Similarly, in the 1970s, plastic was seen as the future material. Its versatility seemed limitless, and it was thought that homes would be made of plastic, with clear walls allowing us to see the world in new ways. Today, while plastic has become ubiquitous in everyday life, its environmental impact has led us to reconsider its place in the future. The idea of transparent plastic homes, so prevalent in the imagination of the time, seems more like a passing trend rather than a lasting solution.
This trend of focusing on the new and shiny at the expense of the old can be harmful. It leads to neomania, a tendency to overvalue new technologies simply because they are new. People who suffer from this condition are often more interested in owning the latest gadget than in understanding whether it improves their lives in any meaningful way. To them, novelty is the only measure of value. And this obsession with the next big thing can distract us from the enduring utility of the technologies that have worked for centuries. It’s not that new technologies aren’t worth exploring, but rather that we should not lose sight of what has already proven valuable and effective.
The Fallacy of Overestimating the Future
The tendency to make grand predictions is old, but it has become even more pronounced in recent decades as technological advancements have accelerated. It’s easy to look at the present and project it into the future, imagining a world where everything is radically different. However, history teaches us that these predictions are often far more optimistic than reality. Stanley Kubrick’s 2001: A Space Odyssey is an iconic example of this overestimation. Released in 1968, the film painted a picture of a future where humans would have colonized the moon, with regular commuter flights operated by Pan American Airways. Space travel was commonplace in this world, and humanity had reached beyond the Earth’s atmosphere.
Yet, as we approach 2024, that vision remains far from reality. We are still decades away from establishing a permanent human presence on the moon, and space travel is still a costly and complex endeavor accessible only to a select few. While we have made incredible strides in space exploration, we are nowhere near the level of accessibility and regularity that Kubrick envisioned. This disparity between prediction and reality is a cautionaryy tale about the dangers of overestimating the future.
This tendency to overestimate the future is something that Taleb refers to as the “fallacy of overestimating the future.” We often imagine a world where everything is radically different, but much of the technology we rely on today will still be around, just in evolved forms. Instead of focusing on wildly optimistic predictions, we should consider the technologies that have endured and adapted over time. These innovations have shown their resilience and are more likely to shape the future meaningfully. The technologies that survive the test of time—like the chair, the fork, or the bookshelf—often have a proven track record and offer enduring value.
The Enduring Wisdom of the Past
In a world where new technologies are continually emerging, it’s easy to forget that many of the most important innovations in our lives are not the newest but the oldest. The chair, the fork, the bookshelf—these technologies have been refined over centuries. They result from countless generations of human ingenuity, yet we rarely consider their enduring value. These technologies may not be flashy or new, but they continue to serve us well because they are simple, effective, and adaptable.
The lesson is that the future may not look as radically different from the present as we imagine. While new technologies will undoubtedly emerge, they may not completely upend how we live. Instead, the future will likely be an evolution of the present, with the technologies that have already proven their worth continuing to play a central role in our lives. The chair you sit in, the fork you use to eat, and the bookshelf that holds your books are not relics of the past but living technologies that continue to serve us.
As we look ahead to the next fifty years, we should not lose sight of the enduring wisdom of these simple inventions. The future may not be filled with flying cars and moon colonies, but it will still be shaped by the technologies that have stood the test of time. The key to understanding the future is not to focus solely on the shiny innovations but to appreciate the value of the old technologies that continue to work. The future may look like today, and that’s something worth celebrating.
Conclusion
Neomania, our obsession with everything shiny and new, often leads us astray when predicting the future. While the allure of technological breakthroughs is undeniable, it is crucial to acknowledge the enduring power of established technology. By recognizing the antifragile nature of inventions that have withstood the test of time, we can develop a more balanced perspective on progress. So, let us appreciate the wisdom of ancient inventions while remaining open to future possibilities, striking a harmonious balance between tradition and innovation.
This article is part of The Art of Thinking Clearly Series based on Rolf Dobelli’s book.